2004 Meeting at Asilomar :  Phorum 5 The fastest message board... ever.
The 48th Annual Meeting, July 4-9, 2004, at Asilomar, Pacific Grove, CA 
Brandt, Revay & Wennberg "Systems Thinking on Risk Analysis"
Posted by: daviding (---.sympatico.ca)
Date: June 20, 2004 02:42PM

Whenever is see the word "analysis", I always consider whether its complement of "synthesis" would be appropriate for consideration, in a systemic framework. Thus, in addition to the reductive view (which is seems to more obvious to most people these days), I think about what the expansive view might be.

From the description in the paper, security would seem to be the containing whole into which risk is placed. Thus, I was on the lookout for ways that the risk issue might be dissolved (in the Ackoff vocabulary) as a mess, rather than just solved as a problem.

I was also thinking about whether there are opportunities to take risks -- because higher rewards come with higher risks -- and learn to take advantage of those. (This is not to say that higher risks should be unmitigated, but where there is risk, there is opportunity).

In the IT world, as an example, sometimes security operatives create a "honey pot", to which perpetrators get easier access. This provides the information systems architects with data about how secure their systems really are, and an opportunity to capture more intelligence on attackers.

It often seems that so much effort is placed in risk reduction that bureaucracy sets in, and creativity is lost. I'm not sure if this applies to the situation at hand, but since we're in a systems science conference, we probably shouldn't miss the opportunity to look at the expansive side.

Subject Written By Posted
  SABI 2004: Business Systems -- Environmental Context daviding 06/13/2004 03:53PM
  Why Environmental Context? daviding 06/20/2004 05:34AM
  Ostlund & Revay "Systems Thinking in the Virtual Realm" daviding 06/20/2004 06:42AM
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  Kim "Peace-Prone Foreign Policy: Domestic-Regional Linkage" daviding 06/20/2004 02:25PM
  Brandt, Revay & Wennberg "Systems Thinking on Risk Analysis" daviding 06/20/2004 02:42PM
  Tugbiyele "Mysterious Management of Urban Systems" daviding 06/20/2004 02:59PM

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